Trend and Prospect of PVC market in 2011

2022-08-11
  • Detail

2011 PVC market trend and outlook

on June 1, the 2011 China Plastics Industry Conference held by Dalian Commodity Exchange and China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation was held in Ningbo. Ms. Xu Peng, consultant of chlor alkali and PVC of UK tycoon Global Chemical Co., Ltd., said in the forum that China's PVC production exceeded 20million tons in 2011, reaching an annual capacity of 22million tons, an increase of 19% compared with that in 2010, but this does not mean that the world's demand for PVC will be completely met by China. The reason here is that the operating rate of PVC in the world is not high. In 2010, the average operating rate of PVC in the world was about 70%. Considering the cost advantage of the United States and the reduction of supply in Northeast Asia, in 2011, the operating rate of PVC production capacity in the United States is likely to be further increased from the 77% level in 2010

the following is the text record:

Xu Peng:

good afternoon, everyone! Today, I am honored to stand on the podium of the China Plastics Industry Conference, and I am also grateful to the platform provided by the big business, which gives me the opportunity to discuss with you the past and the trend of PVC, as well as the trend and outlook of PVC market in 2011

when it comes to PVC, we can first consider the three major energy sources of kerosene and gas. In recent years, the United States has mastered the advanced technology of extracting natural gas directly from shale, which has led to a sharp increase in local shale gas production, from 1% in 2005 to 17% now. It is expected that this proportion will rise to 50% by 2030. In terms of price, the price of natural gas in the United States has been gradually lower than that of natural gas in the United States since 2010, as the basic energy accounting for more than 70% of China's total since the completion of all tortuous experimental work of the test piece in 2005. However, on the whole, crude oil has now been about three times the cost of coal, intensifying the pressure of inflation. Under the current energy cost background, coal chemical industry and natural gas chemical industry have greater cost advantages than coal chemical industry

first of all, let's look at the United States, which has relatively low natural gas. After the financial crisis, due to the depression of the real estate market and the low rate of new housing starts, the demand for PVC in the local market of the United States is still in a continuous downturn. In the past two years, the growth of the operating rate of the PVC industry in the United States mainly depends on the increase of PVC exports. The United States exported 1.37 million tons of PVC in 2008, while in 2010, the export volume of PVC in the United States reached 2.73 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 41%. The proportion of PVC exports in the annual output of the United States increased from 23% in 2008 to 46% in 2010. In other words, nearly half of U.S. production in 2010 was for export markets. The trend of PVC export market in the United States is basically synchronized with crude oil prices, or lags behind by one to two months

the destinations of PVC exports in the United States are scattered in all regions of the world. In 2010, 39% of PVC in the United States was exported to other countries in the Americas, 30% to the Middle East and Africa, 10% to Europe and 21% to Asia. Among them, China accounts for 13% of U.S. PVC exports. Comparing the proportion chart of 2010 with that of 2009, we can see that the export proportion of PVC in the United States increased in 2010, mainly in Eastern Europe, such as Russia and Ukraine

calcium carbide method accounts for a large number of PVC exports in China. China's anti-dumping of PVC imports from many countries began, and domestic PVC production began to grow. After the annual export of 750000 tons, the international trade frictions have increased. The PVC exported by China has been subject to anti-dumping investigations or restrictions from India, Brazil and other countries, and the export volume has declined. However, the reduction of export volume is more due to the cost. Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, the price of crude oil has fallen sharply, the cost advantage of calcium carbide method over acetylene method will no longer continue, the quantity of PVC exported by China has decreased significantly, and the oil price has gradually recovered. When the price of calcium carbide is relatively stable, the export volume of PVC in China will also rise. However, with the rise of raw materials and labor costs of calcium carbide PVC in China, the price critical point for calcium carbide PVC to gain comparative advantage has increased

last year's market focus was that the export of PVC from the United States increased, thanks to low natural gas prices. American manufacturers have a lower energy price base. According to the introduction of Vicat softening point tester technology, China's PVC exports decreased, and Chinese manufacturers must adapt to the increase in energy and labor costs. China's PVC exports along the coast will continue to be restricted. In 2010, the proportion of regional PVC production in the global production was about North America, Western Europe and Northeast Asia, which were net PVC export regions. Countries such as China, central and North Asia and South America accounted for more PVC consumption than production. China is a large country with PVC production capacity, and the new production capacity in the future is still planned to be put into production in China. In 2011, China's PVC output exceeded 20million tons, reaching an annual output of 22million tons, an increase of 19% compared with that in 2010, but this does not mean that the world's demand for PVC will be completely met by China. The reason here is that the operating rate of PVC in the world is not high. In 2010, the average operating rate of PVC in the world was about 70%. Considering the cost advantage of the United States and the reduction of supply in Northeast Asia, in 2011, the operating rate of PVC production capacity in the United States is likely to be further increased from the 77% level in 2010. What needs to be considered and corrected in this chart is the operating rate in Northeast Asia. Due to the earthquake disaster in Japan, the newly announced output of PVC in Japan in April has decreased by 22% compared with last year. The recent fire incident of Yaosu group in Taipei will also have a great impact on the output. This gap will be supplemented by the increase in operating rate, the cost advantage of American PVC, and part of it will be met by the export consumer market, such as the new production capacity of the Middle East and Eastern Europe

the average operating rate of PVC production capacity in Northeast Asia in 2010 was 84%. Relevant institutions predicted that the average GDP growth of Northeast Asia in was 2.3% per year, and the local demand growth was slow. However, there was strong support from Asia and the rest of the region, the Middle East, the reconstruction of the Japanese earthquake, and good local logistics conditions, which achieved a good balance between chlor alkali

in 2010, the average operating rate of PVC production capacity in the United States was 77%. Relevant institutions predicted that the average GDP growth of the United States was 3.1% per year in, and the local demand grew rapidly. However, through its low energy cost, the PVC production in the United States will have a better performance

70% of ethylene in the United States uses natural gas as raw material. Since 2005, the price of ethylene in the United States has been much higher than that in other countries, reaching $200/ton at the highest time. Some people will worry that Japan's nuclear accident will lead to increased demand for traditional energy such as natural gas, but the low energy base of the United States will not be easily shaken

in 2010, the average operating rate of China's PVC production capacity was only 51%. Relevant institutions predict that China's GDP will grow by an average of 8% per year in, and local demand will increase by 90% Which is the swing angle of the mode? Let's learn from each other. It is applicable to GB4706. The swing angle experimental speed is 0100 times/min (settable), and the tacit speed is 60 times/min. the increase of new real estate construction, the significant increase of current labor costs, and the tightening of monetary policy have brought pressure to PVC enterprises, In particular, it is a great challenge for some enterprises that purchase raw materials for power generation

the trend of calcium carbide fuel in East China in recent years is basically in line with the trend of electricity price. It is noteworthy that at the end of 2010, that is, during the end of the Eleventh Five Year Plan period, power and production restrictions have strained the supply of calcium carbide, and the price has increased significantly from 400 yuan/ton, bringing huge production and cost pressure to PVC by calcium carbide process. In the same period of 2010, the price of ethylene in Asia will be relatively low, between US dollars, in East China, and even in most of 2010, but for inland calcium carbide PVC enterprises, it is very different. Although the transportation cost is increasing, it has the advantage of low raw material cost. From the perspective of calcium carbide alone, if it is 10million yuan per stone, it will also reduce 14.5 million yuan, equivalent to 220 US dollars, which is at the level of average and stable profit in the year. However, since 2008, due to the gradual rise of electricity prices, logistics, raw materials and other prices, calcium carbide enterprises in East China are in the stage of relatively low profits, and the PVC market is in the state of large supply and demand, so the price is limited, Therefore, East China calcium carbide PVC enterprises have chosen enough polyethylene to directly produce PVC, and some are in the state of purchase suspension

look at the ethylene PVC in East China. Since the beginning of the year, it has been squeezed by calcium carbide PVC. Since the oil price fell sharply in 2008, and the cost of calcium carbide PVC has generally increased since then, the cost of ethylene PVC in East China is relatively considerable. At the beginning of this year, more than 600000 tons of production capacity was invested in Ningbo. Although these production capacities are directly produced by dichloroethane or ethylene, they still rely on calcium carbide PVC in the central and western regions, but these two are the only two polyvinyl chloride enterprises that have expanded ethylene process in China in recent years. This new change deserves our attention

I attach here that 300000 tons of PVC production capacity will be put into operation in Eastern Europe and Ukraine, and the output will focus on meeting domestic and surrounding needs, especially for Russia. Russia also has 330000 tons of PVC units, which will be put into operation in 2013, and the output also meets its domestic market. In addition, in South America, Brazil will put into production 210000 tons of PVC capacity in 2012. Among the BRICs countries, India is relatively prominent, because among the four countries, India is the only one that has no significant new capacity plan at present, which is mainly related to India's own investment environment, energy prices and geographical location. These factors determine that the local PVC market will continue to rely on imported goods for a long time

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI