Market analysis of machinery industry in the first

2022-08-08
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Market analysis of machinery industry in the first half of 2019 and prediction of development trend in the second half of 2019

electromechanical; Electromechanical equipment; Mechanical and electrical products; Information Delivery; Industry information; Since the beginning of this year, under the increasingly complex domestic and international development environment, the machinery industry has been under pressure. At the beginning of the year, production and sales continued the downward trend of the previous year, rebounded to a certain extent in March, and fluctuated after April. Product output differentiated, the decline of benefit indicators narrowed, investment growth slowed down and stabilized, and the price index hovered at a low level. Except for the relatively large fluctuations in some industries, the economic operation of the machinery industry in the first half of the year was generally stable, and the main economic indicators remained within a reasonable range

I. overview of industry operation in the first half of the year

resolution 1 point

(I) low growth of added value

since this year, the growth rate of added value in the machinery industry has fluctuated greatly, rising from 2% in the beginning of the year and month to 6.3% in the first quarter, and then falling back to 4.2% in the first half of the year. It is not only 4.2 percentage points lower than the same period last year, but also lower than the national average level of industry and manufacturing in the same period

among the five major categories of national economic industries mainly involved in the machinery industry, the added value of general equipment manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, and instrument and meter manufacturing increased by 5.1%, 8.3%, 10% and 9.6% year-on-year respectively, higher than the average level of the machinery industry; The increase of automobile manufacturing industry can be divided into vertical universal tensile testing machine and horizontal tensile testing machine. The value decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, lower than the average level of the machinery industry

(II) the production of products varies

since this year, the production of major products in the machinery industry has continued to weaken. Among the 120 major products monitored by the machinery industry in the month, only 48 products with year-on-year growth in output accounted for 40%; There were 72 products with year-on-year decline, accounting for 60%. From the perspective of trend, the number of mechanical products whose output has increased since the first half of the year has continued to decrease, accounting for 40% of the year, down from 44% at the beginning of the year; And the output has increased, and the growth rate of products has also shown a downward trend

source: machine economy

(III) economic benefits declined

in the first half of the year, the machinery industry achieved an operating income of 10.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.29% year-on-year; The total profit was 619.537 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.58%. The growth rate of the two indicators fell sharply compared with the previous year, and the growth rate of total profits turned from positive to negative, with negative growth for the first time in more than a decade. Compared with the national industry, the growth rate of operating income and total profit of the machinery industry were 3.42 and 6.19 percentage points lower than the national industrial average level in the same period, respectively

(IV) fixed asset investment tends to stabilize slowly

at the beginning of 2019, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the machinery industry continued the growth trend of the previous two years, but after entering March, the investment growth rate fell, and stabilized in June. In the first half of the year, among the five major categories of national economic industries mainly involved in the machinery industry, the fixed asset investment in general equipment, special equipment, instrumentation and automobile manufacturing industry increased by 2.8%, 7.2%, 14.2% and 0.2% respectively, and the investment in electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry decreased by 8.1% year-on-year. Compared with the national industrial investment growth rate, only the investment growth rate of special equipment and instrumentation industry is higher than the industrial average level

according to the data of the national investment project approval and supervision platform, the investment amount of investment projects approved nationwide in the first half of this year totaled 67.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 29.9% year-on-year; Among them, the investment in machinery industry related investment projects totaled 3.12 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, lower than the average growth rate. Recently, our association has carried out a special questionnaire survey on some key contact enterprises. The results show that the current factors restricting industry investment are: first, insufficient funds, and it is difficult to complete the investment only by relying on the enterprise's own funds; Second, the problem of difficult and expensive financing still exists; Third, insufficient investment willingness and unclear direction

II. Steady progress in industry development

(I) strategic emerging industries drive industry development

in the first half of the year, industries related to strategic emerging industries in the machinery industry (a total of 117 sub categories of national economic industries) achieved an operating income of 7.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.48% year-on-year, 2.19 percentage points higher than the overall machinery industry, accounting for 73.4% of the operating income of the machinery industry, an increase of 1.56 percentage points over the same period last year. Excluding the automobile industry, in the first half of the year, the machinery industry adjusted manually according to experience, and the strategic emerging industry achieved an operating income of 5.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.28% year-on-year; The total profit was 322.204 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.14%. Strategic emerging industries have played an enhanced role in driving the steady development of the machinery industry

(II) the development of sub industries is generally good

since this year, the main economic indicators of the machinery industry have been running low recently, which is greatly affected by the decline of the automotive industry. Excluding the automobile industry, the 13 sub industries of the machinery industry achieved a cumulative operating income of 6.55 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 6.06% year-on-year; The total profit was 366.676 billion yuan, an increase of 6.96% year-on-year; Both are higher than the growth rate of machinery industry and national industrial related indicators. Among them, the growth rate of operating income of engineering machinery, heavy mining machinery, food packaging machinery, robot and intelligent manufacturing industries all exceeded 10%, indicating that the sub industry of machinery industry is generally in good operation

III. annual trend forecast

affected by the automobile industry this year, the economic operation of the machinery industry has been under certain pressure. Although the main indicators are still within a reasonable range, the severity of the situation is greater than expected at the beginning of the year. The operation trend index of the machinery industry in June was 98.24, which has been below the critical value for the fourth consecutive month, indicating that there is still downward pressure on the operation of the industry in the future. At the same time, positive factors are also accumulating. Macroeconomic policies have increased support for the manufacturing industry, industrial policies have been gradually implemented, enterprise confidence has begun to rebound, and the whole industry will continue to move towards high-quality development after adjustment

for the development of the main sub industries of the machinery industry in the second half of the year, we have the following judgments:

as the largest sub industry of the machinery industry, the automobile industry, driven by the policy of promoting automobile consumption, will gradually narrow the decline in production and sales in the second half of the year, and the operating situation will be improved

as the second largest sub industry of the machinery industry, the production and marketing situation of power generation equipment is difficult to change significantly, but the production and marketing of power transmission and transformation products will be significantly improved driven by relevant construction projects

as the third largest industry in the machinery industry, the petrochemical general equipment industry is running well driven by the rebound in investment in the petrochemical industry, and is expected to maintain steady and rapid growth throughout the year

the heavy mining industry mainly serves the energy and raw material industries such as steel, coal, nonferrous metals and building materials. Due to the structural adjustment of these industries, the economic benefits have improved, and the investment demand has increased. Therefore, the current orders of heavy-duty enterprises are relatively sufficient, and it is expected that the whole year of 2019 will achieve a stable and rising trend

the machine tool industry is in a critical period of transformation and upgrading, the market demand is in a fluctuating state, and the development of enterprises is facing great difficulties. Since the beginning of this year, the market demand has declined, resulting in a decline in orders and users' delay in picking up goods. It is expected that the downward trend will continue in the second half of the year

after nearly two years of rapid growth, the relevant indicators of the construction machinery industry have been at a high level, but driven by the country's increased infrastructure construction, it will still maintain a certain range of growth

with the continuous improvement of agricultural machinery ownership, the production and sales of major agricultural machinery products have fallen sharply in the past two years, and the operation of the industry is sluggish. However, due to the recent introduction of a series of policies to support and benefit agriculture, the subsidy for the purchase of agricultural machinery has remained stable, and the overall policy environment is good; At the same time, the comparison base of relevant indicators has been at a low level, and some products have shown signs of bottoming out. It is expected that the agricultural machinery industry is expected to achieve slight growth in the second half of the year

according to the comprehensive analysis, although the economic operation difficulties and pressures of the whole machinery industry in 2019 are great, positive factors still exist. It is preliminarily estimated that the overall economic operation of the whole year will be relatively stable, the industrial added value will strive to reach about 6%, and the operating revenue, total profits and import and export trade will maintain moderate growth

the market analysis of the machinery industry in the first half of 2019 and the development trend forecast in the second half of 2019 are collated and released by China mechanical and electrical products trading (hereinafter referred to as machine trading). If you need to reprint, please indicate the source of the article. For more information about the electromechanical industry, please click attention: electromechanical information of China's electromechanical products trading

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